Presentation to the Darley Flying Start Conference at Keeneland, Kentucky
July 2007

Dean Roethemeier vs Jerome Reynier
Debate: The bias against 20+ year old stallions is not justified

The argument for: Dean Roethemeier

The bias against older stallions exists because of a long held belief that a horse’s genetic material degrades with age, thus producing a lesser individual. This is simply not true. Dr. Ernest Bailey, a geneticist at the Gluck Equine Research Centre, has said that “From an understanding of molecular genetics, there's no reason to expect the age of the stallion to have any impact on the performance of the offspring.” He sums up the point by saying “There's isn't any basis for saying that a horse's genetic contribution will improve or decline with age. There's no mechanism for such an increase or decrease." So, there we have it – there is no scientific reason to believe that a stallion’s progeny will be affected by his age at time of conception.

For the sake of my argument, I will consider an older stallion to be one that is around 20 years old or older. People are hesitant to breed to older stallions. They look to newer options and often think that an older stallion will get them a less than desirable individual. However, you should not even consider that the resulting foal will be less of a racehorse than one conceived by the stallion at a younger age. We have already established that the genetic material that a stallion passes on does not change over time. A stallion is genetically just as capable of siring a quality runner at age 25 as he was at age 5. There is no natural prime for a stallion like there may be for a mare due to age. Statistics may show a dip in the later years of a stallion’s career, but this is merely a function of the bias born out in the form of lesser mares and declining support. This bias is nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophecy and those who choose to ignore it may be rewarded for doing so.

Enough people have bought into this bias and so it becomes real. Of course a stallion’s numbers will drop if the quality of the mares sent to him decreases. This is just common sense. Breeders should consult the Comp. Index for a stallion to determine if the quality of his mares is decreasing along with his age. If the stallion’s Comp. Index is decreasing, then this will certainly account for a dip in performance. A successful stallion may also have his own successful sons at stud to compete with. This is very much the case at the higher end of the market. Andrew Caulfield made the point in his May 15 column in the TDN that perhaps one of the reasons Danzig did not succumb to the fate of older stallions is that most of his successful sons are at stud in Europe and therefore were not directly competing with him.

At this point we understand the bias, but we should talk about why it still exists. We all know that in reality our breeding decisions are made according to fashion as much as they are based in statistics and reality. I hope we can also agree that the overall goal for any breeder, no matter how commercial, should be to breed a racehorse. Focusing on this goal can pay out in many ways. The most obvious reward is for the owner-breeder in the form of purse money. Commercially minded people of course want to breed something that will sell well, but we should remember that it is results, in the end, that count. One’s reputation as a breeder or consignor is certainly improved with positive results on the track. And, winners early in a mare’s produce record are very important when trying to build the value of your broodmare band. I believe that the best way to accomplish this is by breeding to a known commodity.

Not only do I believe that the bias is unjustified, but I also believe that there are advantages to ignoring such a bias. The first advantage of using older stallions is often value. Due to nothing more than a stallion falling out of favour, one can breed to a proven producer for a fraction of what it would have cost to breed to the same horse earlier in his career. There is also a discount on the progeny of these horses at the sales. Older stallions are invaluable to a breeder with young mares off the track. Breeding a young mare to a proven individual is a great way to establish just what kind of mare you are dealing with. Many times a mare will be bred to first year stallions for the first few years with poor results, leaving the owner wondering whether it was the stallion or his mare that isn’t producing the goods. Breeding this same young mare to a proven stallion takes at least some of the mystery out of the proposition. Better you breed to a horse with solid numbers and then make the decision on whether to keep the mare or send her down the line. Also, something should be said for simply standing the test of time. Especially in this market, the stallions that are still in Central Kentucky in their twenties are horses that have passed this test and are most likely still worth considering.

Different categories of statistics start to come into play as a stallion ages, such as his performance as a broodmare sire. Some older stallions in addition to having good statistics can offer a bonus in the form of a filly. Quiet American, Woodman and Theatrical are all examples of sires that are still getting quality runners and leaving a lasting influence in the form of their daughters.

I’d like to discuss some other horses which I believe help disprove the bias against older stallions and some that offer real value to those who choose to ignore the bias.

The poster boy for older stallions would have to be Danzig. While he is now gone, his last few crops have been among his best with a crop of two year olds still to come. Bill Oppenheim points out in his May 16 th column in the TDN that the odds of a colt from his second to last crop, three year olds of this year, being a live Classic contender were 5-2 and the odds of one of them finishing first or second in a Classic were 8-1. He sired this crop at the age of 26. I’d like to just name a few of the horses that were sired by Danzig after he had passed the 20 year mark: Century City, Della Francesca, Country Reel, Antonius Pius, Ad Valorem, Defer, Librettist, Survivalist, War Front, Astronomer Royal, Hard Spun and US Ranger. Danzig is proof that if the quality of mare continues to be good then the stallion can produce successful racehorses well into the twilight of his career.

In any geriatric roll of honour, it would be hard to leave out the great Mr. Prospector, who was still covering mares at the ripe old age of 29. We probably all know the story of how Mr. Prospector sired his only Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, at age 26. FuPeg was no fluke. In the same crop was Grade 1 stakes winner Traditionally and Graded Stakes winners Strike Softly, Moon Driver and Ocean of Wisdom. But, he did not stop there. The very next year he sired Aldeberan, E Dubai, Dancethruthedawn and Full of Wonder. Remember, this was at age 27! Prominent stallions Hussonet and Smart Strike were both also sired by Mr. Prospector during his Golden years, excuse the pun.

Of course, at this point you’re thinking that these horses were going to have a shot right up until the end as they had an endless supply of top class mares. And, to an extent you’re right. Danzig and Mr. Prospector did have some real queens coming to them at that point, but even these two horses saw a moderate decline in the number of quality mares that they bred, resulting a dip in overall stats. However, they are still proof that a stallion is perfectly capable of producing top class racehorses no matter how old he is. Of course, we do not all deal in the realm of Danzigs and Mr. Prospectors. In the more realistic world of useful stallions, many horses become overlooked because of their age. There are some current older stallions that are still proving their worth in spite of the bias against them.

Pleasant Tap is an example of an older horse that is still producing quality runners and being offered at a bargain basement price. This is a stallion that has been in the top 15 of the general sire list for the past 2 years, but is only standing at $15,000. This is a terrific value in my mind, with 3 different Grade 1 winners in the past two years, those being Tiago, Premium Tap and David Junior.

The 22 year old stallion, Rahy represents a very attractive proposition for someone with a young, quality race mare looking for a good stallion to start her off with. Rahy stands for $60,000, which is not cheap, but is extremely fair. Here is a 22 year old stallion whose progeny perform well on the racetrack and considering his age, don’t disappoint in the sales ring. Rahy also gets quality two year olds, as evidenced by Dreaming of Anna, which can help start a mare in the right direction. And, as a bonus, he is becoming a respected broodmare sire.

So, to conclude, I’d like to repeat that there is no scientific reason to believe that a stallion’s progeny will be affected by his age. Any statistics indicating a dip in performance in older stallions are due to people reacting to an unfair bias towards those horses. And, there is opportunity for those who choose to acknowledge the facts and ignore the bias. To sum it up and put it simply - As long as the stallion can produce a foal, then he is capable of producing a quality foal. Thank you all for listening, and please, give these old guys a chance.

The argument against: Jerome Reynier

When breeding thoroughbreds, you take a horse who has amazing bloodlines and fantastic performances on the racetrack, but that's only where you start. Nicks, matings, so many factors fit in. It is a science where nothing is exact. But it is also one of the most exciting accomplishments a horseman can ever undertake. I am a breeder myself and every year I am scratching my head to know which stallion will suit my mare the best.

What surprised me when I began to analyze this business is how fashionable a breeding operation needs to be to succeed at the sales. If you have got bloodlines buyers have seen for several years in a sale’s catalogue, they will naturally think they know part of the potential of the horse but when it is brand new, it might appear better that what they have already seen, that is why first season sires are receiving a huge push from breeders who try to succeed at the sales.

If we look closely at the 2006 Keeneland September Yearling sales to have a clear idea about the real effect on the industry, we can see that old stallions’ progeny such as the ones of Cozzene and Woodman for example have struggled to reach their stud fees. Cozzene had 16 yearlings at this particular sale and only 8 of them found a new home averaging about $80,000 with a $60,000 stud fee. Woodman broke even with his eleven yearlings averaging $25,000 which was his stud fee in 2004 when his yearlings have been conceived.

If we look in the opposite way with first season sires, we can easily see the huge difference of profit made by breeders who did the right choice using first season sires. From a $10,000 budget invested in stud fee in 2004 with Posse or Kafwain to a $50,000 budget invested with Vindication for example, those three stallions averaged more than six times their stud fees.

	Crop	Yearlings for sale	Yearlings sold	Average	2004 stud fees	Profit on the stud fee
Old stallions:
COZZENE	19th	16	8	$80,375	$60,000	34%
WOODMAN	18th	14	11	$25,273	$25,000	1%
New stallions:
KAFWAIN	1st	43	31	$62,163	$10,000	522%
POSSE	1st	22	17	$71,012	$10,000	610%
VINDICATION	1st	73	54	$352,556	$50,000	605%

 

Then why a commercial breeder would send his mare to a stallion that will not complete the requirements to make profit at the sales. But before thinking about sales or even nicks, it is necessary to be knowledgeable of the stallions having issues with their fertility to do not waste any time in the mares’ drift that will provide as many foals as possible in mares’ lifetime.

Naturally, fertility problems occur when stallions get older and their decreasing libido affects their efficiency in the breeding shed as well. It is common to see older stallions becoming subfertile which means their fertility is decreasing by taking the form of low sperm count, longevity, poor motility or sperm morphology.

As stallions age, their breeding performance can decrease dramatically, and Dr. Sue McDonnell from the University of Pennsylvania indicates musculoskeletal and neurological disease can account for 50% of the breeding difficulties. Fertility issues give a lot of trouble to get mares pregnant and that is definitely not what a breeder is looking for.

Now, when I think about 20 year old + stallions, the first question I am thinking of is: “Do the quality of their progeny is affected once they get older?” The first “quick answer” seems to be “NO!” no because as Dean said from a genetic point of view, there's no reason to expect the age of the stallion to have any impact on the performance of the offspring.

David Foye, a geneticist at the Foye Equine Genetics here in Kentucky, who has recommended matings for many of the most prominent breeders in the business, offered his explanation of the decline in older sires' statistics. Several years ago, he said, a client asked him to do an extensive and expensive study of the quality of the mares sent to stallions over a period of years. The study showed a decline of some 10 to 15 percent in the quality of mares sent to even the very best sires, he said.

I have done my own research and have taken five very good stallions to study how good their progeny were after their twentieth birthday, the result obtained is amazing. The first one studied is Raise a Native who had his first crop in 1965 and produced 17 crops until his 20 th birthday averaging 12% of Stakes winners to foal; from his 18 th crop to his last one in 1988, he produced seven crops after his 20s averaging only 3% of Stakes winners to foal. Ladies and Gentlemen, from 12% to 3% this is a 75% decrease! The same results appeared when studying the other four stallions from the selection as Deputy Minister, Great Nephew, His Majesty and Tom Rolfe. They all got a decrease of 50% or more of Stakes winners to foal after their 20s. We are way far below the normal decreases planned of 10 to 15 percent because of the poor quality of mares sent to them, there is apparently something going on.

 

RAISE A NATIVE, 1961
	Crops	Stakes Winners		Winners		Foals	Average of Foals per Crop
1965 to 1980	17	68	12%	306	54%	566	~33
1981 to 1988	7	9	3%	125	42%	297	~42
All Crops	24	77	9%	431	50%	863	~36

 

DEPUTY MINISTER, 1979
	Crops	Stakes Winners		Winners		Foals	Average of Foals per Crop
From 1985 to 1999	15	75	9%	454	57%	793	~53
From 2000 to 2003	4	11	4%	118	43%	273	~68
Crops from 1985 to 2003	19	80	8%	572	54%	1066	~56

 

GREAT NEPHEW, 1963
	Crops	Stakes Winners		Winners		Foals	Average of Foals per Crop
From 1969 to 1983	15	36	8%	223	50%	450	30
From 1984 to 1986	3	3	4%	26	39%	67	~22
All Crops	18	39	8%	249	48%	517	~29

 

HIS MAJESTY, 1968
	Crops	Stakes Winners		Winners		Foals	Average of Foals per Crop
From 1974 to 1988	15	46	11%	250	58%	428	~29
From 1989 to 1996	8	9	4%	126	56%	227	~28
All Crops	23	55	8%	376	57%	655	~28

 

TOM ROLFE, 1962
	Crops	Stakes Winners		Winners		Foals	Average of Foals per Crop
From 1968 to 1982	15	42	10%	248	58%	430	~29
From 1983 to 1990	8	6	3%	122	52%	234	~29
All Crops	23	48	7%	370	56%	664	~29

 

Statistics are pretty hard to describe that is why I have decided to give you a clear image of what an old stallion progeny is.

Let’s take Mr. Prospector, what a sire, what a legend! He has been leading sire in the United States in 1987 and 1988, and has been among the leading sire nine other years. He averaged 17% of Stakes winners to foal until his 20s. This stallion covered all the most prestigious mares in the world all along his stud career. I have focussed on his last two crops that gather 81 foals; they are out of 44 Stakes winners including 17 Grade 1 winners and 37 Stakes winners’ producers including dams of 15 individual Grade 1 winners.

If he was keeping his same average of Stakes winners to foal, he would have gotten 14 Stakes winners in his last two crops, the truth is again way far below this expectation with only one Stakes winner produced with those two amazing books of mares that included mares such as Miesque (dam of Kingmambo), Angel Fever (dam of Fusaichi Pegasus), Dance Of Leaves (dam of Charnwood Forest & Medaaly), Halory (dam of Van Nistelrooy), Seven Springs (dam of Distant View) and many other with the same standard. It is obvious to say the age of a stallion has a big impact on the performance of the offspring.

 

MR. PROSPECTOR, 1970
	Crops	Stakes Winners		Winners		Foals	Average of Foals per Crop
From 1976 to 1990	15	131	17%	504	67%	751	~50
From 1991 to 2000	10	50	11%	245	55%	444	~44
Two last crops (1999-2000)	2	1	1%	33	41%	81	~40
All Crops	25	181	15%	749	63%	1195	~48

 

Now that I brought you concrete facts with those examples of older stallions, I am still wondering about the future such as: “Will the 20 year old stallions today have the same characteristics in few years time?” I personally think the answer is slightly towards the negative side when going back fifteen years ago and realizing they were not covering 150+ mares at the beginning of their stud career and shuttling was not so popular.

As Gina and Alex have already discussed previously in the book of mares analysis, in decades past, stallions were normally limited to 40 or fewer mares annually, the conviction being that larger books could reduce libido, fertility or foals quality. For years, Man o' War was restricted to 25 mares a season and that is probably why he covered mares until 25 without any problem and died at the great age of 30. The same example for Danzig, because he has been carefully managed at Claiborne Farm covering limited books of 60 mares without being shuttled, he has been able to throw quality horses towards the end of his career.

Also, as Sarah and Fabricio talked about earlier when analyzing the impact of shuttling stallions, it was not common to see stallions covering mares in another hemisphere in the early 90’s which is the time when the 20 year old stallions today were just retired to stud. Now they start from their first year covering massive books and being equally active in both hemispheres with the total of coverings reaching up to 300 mares covered a year.

From Man O War covering a restricted book of 25 mares in the 30's to the new generation of stallions today having six times the amount of foals on the ground within less than a century, it is a big evolution that science and people have learnt how to deal with and horses are trying their best to catch up with this high demand. This situation makes me think about the issue of global warming on earth, now we have reached the limits and we have gone way too far messing up with the planet and people are trying to react when it is possibly too late.

Separating the truth from the fiction and the accurate links from the misunderstandings is part of what we learn here, but when the warnings are accurate and based on sound science, then we as human beings, whatever the country we live in, have to find a way to make sure that the warnings are heard and responded to.

If we allow stallions to cover an unlimited book of mares from a young age and sending them in the other hemisphere to keep on going and double up the number of mares covered without thinking about their future, it is deeply unethical. It is more than just a political issue; it is primarily a moral issue. Not to mention the decreased quality of the foals, which in turn harms the stallions’ reputation and takes business away from the stallion owners, as the breeder will not be completely satisfied.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the bias against 20 year old + stallions is justified, first of all and to resume this presentation there is a major decrease concerning older stallions’ fertility and libido and it does not help to get mares pregnant. There is also an obvious lack of interest regarding progeny by older stallions at auction sales. And finally to conclude, there is now officially a decrease and a deep impact on the performance of the offspring with the different statistics brought to you today.

 

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